Treasure Trails/Rewards

This section or article is incomplete and could do with improvement. Reason: Post-Master Clues/Rework Easy/Medium Clue reward table info missing You can discuss this issue on the talk page or edit this page to improve it.

This page is about the mechanics of how a Treasure Trail's rewards are determined and calculations from this to determine drop chances of each reward.

Most clues operate on a series of drop tables with associated chances to access. They start with an initial table which contains all the rewards common to all levels of trails - sweets, meerkats, god pages, etc - and a chance to enter the clue's rare table, containing all of the clue's specific rewards (some of which may be on subtables within the rare table).

The vocabulary used here can be confusing, so here are a number of definitions of terms used on this page:

• Droptable
  A list of things that can be dropped and their associated chances. Can contain another droptable.
• (Droptable) slot
  One of the things on the droptable. This may be an item or another droptable.
• Reward spot
  A place on the clue reward interface which can contain an item. A clue generates at least 2 of these per reward. Each tier of clue has a minimum number of reward spots it will create, and then it will add 0-2 extra spots randomly.
  If the same item is generated for multiple spots, they will combine into one stack (commonly occurs with runes), which may make a clue appear to generate less than it should.
• 1/x
  The value given in the column is the x value in the 1/x. So a value of 15 in the column means the chance is 1/15, or 1-in-15.
• x SF
  The value in the column has been rounded to x significant figures.
• Roll
  Generate a random number in order to choose a droptable slot, or other number needing to be generated randomly. Each number is equally likely to occur, giving rolls a uniform distribution.
• Any text with a dotted underline has hover text with further explanation.

In order to calculate the per-clue chances, one needs to use a binomial distribution, taking the number of trials n to be the average number of reward spots of that clue tier, and p to be the per-spot chance of getting the items, then calculating the probability of receiving greater than zero of the item. In statistics notation:

${\begin{aligned}X\sim &Bin(average\ reward\ spots,per-spot\ chance)\\&{\text{Find }}P(X>0)\\&=1-P(X=0)\end{aligned}}$

Most spreadsheet programs can do this natively. One can verify these values using a Wolfram Alpha query, such as this for barrows dye from a hard clue; in Microsoft Excel or Google Sheets, this is performed using =1-BINOMDIST(0,5,3/25600,true) (see documentation: Excel, Sheets).

General mechanism

Each clue tier, when completed, first decides how many rewards are given. This is the minimum amount (2 for easy, 3 for medium, 4 for hard and elite), with the result of a 0-2 roll added. Since it is equally likely to be 0, 1, or 2, the average is 1, so the average number of rewards the clue will give is the minimum plus one.

Once the number of rewards are chosen, the rewards are generated. This is usually a series of rolls:

• The first roll is against the common reward table
  • Most of the slots contain the 'common' rewards of the clue (runes, normal staves, normal gear, materials, etc); none of these are clue-specific rewards
  • One slot leads to the global table, which contains god pages, meerkats, sweets, etc
  • One slot leads to the rare table for that clue
• If the global or rare table is obtained, another roll is performed
  • Depending on the result of the second roll, a third (or more) roll may be performed to determine precise rewards

Global table

Main article: Treasure Trails/Rewards/Any level

The table that all clues can pull rewards from (which includes god pages, meerkat pouches and scrolls, purple sweets, prismatic stars, etc) is positioned in the top level droptable for each clue tier. This means each clue tier has a different chance to access it.

If the clue doesn't generate a reward by the time it reaches its last reward spot, it will give an item from this table.

Biscuits have a cap of 200 - once this cap is met, further biscuit rewards are replaced by purple sweets.

Easy

Main article: Treasure Trails/Rewards/Easy

Easy clues generate a minimum of 2 reward spots and a maximum of 4, giving an average of 3 rewards.

Medium

Main article: Treasure Trails/Rewards/Medium

Medium clues generate a minimum of 3 reward spots and a maximum of 5, giving an average of 4 rewards.

The chance of getting each medium-clue-specific item is "around 1/250 per clue". In addition, the 5 animal masks share one droptable slot, as do the male/female variants of elegant clothing (2 per slot) and main-/off-hand briefcases. The pith helmet appears multiple times in the table.

If medium clues behave similarly to the others, one can deduce that there's around 70 slots in the rare table (by counting the rewards) and around 15 in the common table (by using '1/250 per clue' and rounding). However, as the mechanics were not expanded upon in the same way as hards and elites, further analysis will not be done.

Hard

Main article: Treasure Trails/Rewards/Hard

Hard clue rewards begin with a droptable with 16 slots. One of these enters the hard-clue-specific droptable containing 96 slots; this table is documented below. Of the top level droptable, some of the remaining slots leads to the all clues table, and the remaining 14 are assigned to general reward items (mahogany planks, rune equipment, etc). (Technically the top level table is much larger than 16, but simplifies to very close to 1/16 to access the rare table.)

Hard clues generate a minimum of 4 reward spots and a maximum of 6, giving an average of 5 rewards.

Notes

• All of the following items occupy one droptable slot on the rare table directly; a third roll is not performed
  • The items grouped together are grouped for comparison only, they are not grouped in the table itself

Rare table

Item		Droptable slots occupied	Per-reward-spot (1/x)	Per-clue approx. (1/x)	Per-clue exact 5 SF
Any god-trimmed rune armour	15 total pieces:	15	102.9	21	4.85909%
Any specific part		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Any trimmed rune armour	10 total pieces:	10	154.4	31	3.23834%
Any specific part		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Any heraldic rune armour	25 total pieces:	25	61.8	12	8.09061%
Any specific part		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Any trimmed dragonhide	4 total pieces:	4	386	77	1.29534%
Any specific part		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Any enchanted part	3 total pieces:	3	514.7	103	0.97144%
Any specific part		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Any vestment part	12 total pieces:	12	128.7	26	3.885%
Any specific part		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Any blessed dragonhide	12 total pieces:	12	128.7	26	3.885%
Any specific part		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Any cavalier	3 total pieces:	3	514.7	103	0.97144%
Any specific cavalier		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Pirate's hat		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Robin Hood hat		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Amulet of fury (t)		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Amulet of glory (t)		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Top hat		1	1,544	309	0.32383%
Rune cane		1	1,544	309	0.32383%

The remaining 6 droptable slots each lead to a different subtable. These are discussed here and then the chances of each item follow in another table.

1. Animal masks
   The animal mask droptable contains 3 slots, each assigned to an available animal mask (fox, unicorn, black unicorn).
2. Dragon masks
   The dragon mask droptable contains 3 slots, each assigned to an available dragon mask (green, blue, red).
3. Sack of effigies
   The sack of effigies droptable has 30 slots; one of these is the sack of effigies, and the remaining 29 lead to another droptable. This table has 120 slots; one is the explosive barrel and the remaining 119 are coins (25,000)
4. Backstab table
   The backstab droptable has 15 slots; one of these is the backstab cape, and the remaining 14 slots are coins (around 10,000).
5. Dyes
   The dyes table has 10 slots; one of these is shadow dye, and the remaining 9 lead to another droptable. This table has 5 slots; one is barrows dye and the remaining 4 are coins (around 20,000)
6. Mega-rare
   The 'mega rare' table contains 11 slots.
   • The parts of the gilded rune set take 1 slot each (5 total)
   • 4 slots are used by each potion set (1 slot each for 15 super energy, 15 super restore, 15 antifire, and 5 super 'sets' [attack, strength, defence])
   • 1 slot is a starved ancient effigy (or 2,500 coins if 5 effigies are already owned)
   • The final slot leads to another table. This final table has 12 slots, each occupied by a part of third age armour (mage, ranger, warrior sets).

• All of the following items are part of one of the above subtables and are not directly on the rare table; a third (and sometimes fourth) roll is performed to obtain them

Subtables

Item		Per-reward-spot (1/x)	Per-clue approx. (1/x)	Per-clue exact 5 SF
Any animal mask	3 total:	1,544	309	0.32383%
Any specific mask		4,632	926	0.10794%
Any dragon mask	3 total:	1,544	309	0.32383%
Any specific mask		4,632	926	0.10794%
Sack of effigies		46,080	9,216	0.01085%
Coins	10,000 from backstab table	1,655	331	0.30211%
	20,000 from dyes table	2,133	427	0.23441%
	25,000 from explosive barrel table	1,557	311	0.32113%
Explosive barrel		185,309	37,062	0.0027%
Backstab cape		23,164	4,633	0.02159%
Shadow dye		15,442	3,088	0.03238%
Barrows dye		8,579	1,716	0.05828%
Any gilded rune	5 total parts:	3,397	679	0.14719%
Any specific gilded		16,987	3,397	0.02943%
Any potion set	4 total options: 15 , 15 , 15 , or 5 of each of	4,246	849	0.11776%
Any specific potion set		16,987	3,397	0.02943%
Starved ancient effigy		16,987	3,397	0.02943%
Any third age part	12 total:	16,987	3,397	0.02943%
Any specific part		203,840	40,768	0.00245%

Notes

Elite

Main article: Treasure Trails/Rewards/Elite

This section or article is incomplete and could do with improvement. Reason: Blood dyes You can discuss this issue on the talk page or edit this page to improve it.

Elite clue rewards begin with a droptable with 14 slots. One of these enters the clue-specific droptable containing 54 slots; this table is documented below. Of the top level droptable, some of the remaining slots leads to the all clues table, and the remaining 12 are assigned to general reward items (mahogany planks, royal dragonhide, etc). (Technically the top level table is much larger than 14, but simplifies to very close to 1/14 to access the rare table.)

Elite clues generate a minimum of 4 reward spots and a maximum of 6, giving an average of 5 rewards.

Notes

• All of the following items occupy one droptable slot on the rare table directly; a third roll is not performed
  • The items grouped together are grouped for comparison only, they are not grouped in the table itself

Rare table

Item		Droptable slots occupied	Per-reward-spot (1/x)	Per-clue approx. (1/x)	Per-clue exact 5 SF
Any god-trimmed rune armour	15 total pieces:	15	50.4	10	9.92063%
Any specific part		1	756	151	0.66138%
Any dragonhide god armour	12 total pieces:	12	63	13	7.93651%
Any specific part		1	756	151	0.66138%
Any vestment part	6 total pieces:	6	126	25	3.96825%
Any specific part		1	756	151	0.66138%
Any animal staff	5 total pieces:	5	151.2	30	3.30688%
Any specific staff		1	756	151	0.66138%
Any dragon armour kit	8 total pieces:	8	94.5	19	5.29101%
Any specific kit		1	756	151	0.66138%
Fury ornament kit		1	756	151	0.66138%

The remaining 7 droptable slots each lead to a subtable. These are discussed here and then the chances of each item follow in another table.

1. Dragon masks
   The dragon mask droptable contains 6 slots, each assigned to an available dragon mask (black, frost, bronze, iron, steel, mithril).
2. Effigy
   The effigy droptable has 5 slots; one of these is an effigy, and the remaining 4 slots are coins (around 20,000).
3. Prismatic star
   The star droptable has 20 slots; one of these is a prismatic star, and the remaining 19 slots are coins (around 20,000).
4. Hard/Elite dyes
   The 'hard/elite dyes' table has 22 slots; one of these is shadow dye, and the remaining 21 lead to another droptable. This table has 16 slots; one is ice dye and the remaining 15 lead to yet another droptable. This final table has 12 slots; one is barrows dye and the remaining 11 is a re-roll token (elite).
5. Third age dye
   The third age dye table has 70 slots; one is third age dye, and the remaining 69 lead to another droptable. This table has 40 slots; 1 is the sack of effigies, and the remaining 39 lead to yet another droptable. This final table has 20 slots; one is the backstab cape and the remaining 19 is a triskelion piece.
6. Blood dye The blood dye table has 70 slots; one is blood dye, and the remaining 69 lead to another droptable. This table has 2 slots; 1 is the dragon cane, and the other is 100,000 coins.
7. Mega-rare
   The 'mega rare' table contains 51 slots.
   • One of these slots leads to a second table containing the 5 slots, each assigned to one of the 5 parts third age druidic
   • The remaining 50 slots also lead to another table; this one contains 3 slots, each assigned to one of the 3 god bows

• All of the following items are part of one of the above subtables and are not directly on the rare table; a third (and sometimes fourth) roll is performed to obtain them

Subtables

Item		Per-reward-spot (1/x)	Per-clue approx. (1/x)	Per-clue exact 5 SF
Any dragon mask	6 total:	756	151	0.66138%
Any specific mask		4,536	907	0.11023%
Coins	20,000 from effigy table	910	182	0.54945%
	20,000 from star table	766	153	0.65274%
	100,000 from missing a blood dye	839	168	0.59595%
Starved ancient effigy		756	151	0.66138%
Shadow dye		16,632	3,326	0.03006%
Barrows dye		9,293	1,859	0.0538%
Third Age dye		52,920	10,584	0.00945%
Ice dye		12,672	2,534	0.03946%
Blood dye		52,920	10,584	0.00945%
Re-roll token (elite)		929	186	0.53821%
Dragon cane		1,534	307	0.32595%
Sack of effigies		29,542	5,908	0.01693%
Backstab cape		15,732	3,146	0.03178%
Crystal triskelion fragment		828	166	0.60386%
Any god bow	3 total:	771	154	0.64851%
Any specific bow		2,314	463	0.21608%
Any third age druidic part	5 total:	38,314	7,663	0.01305%
Any specific part		191,570	38,314	0.00261%

Notes

Master

See also: Treasure Trails/Rewards/Master

Obtaining

• Most sources of elite clues have a 1% chance of upgrading to a master clue instead, including monster drops, Treasure chest decoration, etc.
• After completing Pieces of Hate, the Skeletal horror has a 1/12 (8.33%) chance to drop a master clue instead of an elite clue.
• When opening clue reward caskets, the following chances apply to get a master clue:
  • Elite: 1/5 (20%)
  • Hard: 1/15 (6.66%)
  • Medium: 1/30 (3.33%)
  • Easy: 1/50 (2%)

Initial rolls

Master clues always have 6 rolls.

The first roll will have a 100/1400 chance of accessing the rare table, and will access the common table otherwise. If the rare table is missed, the numerator is increased by 25 up to a maximum of 175/1400. If tier 4 luck is equipped, the denominator is reduced by 1% (from 1400 to 1386). If the roll is successful, the numerator reverts to 100.

The chances are summarised below:

Missed rolls	Next roll chance		Next roll chance (T4 luck)
	Fraction	Percent	Fraction	Percent
0	100/1400	7.14%	100/1386	7.22%
1	125/1400	8.93%	125/1386	9.02%
2	150/1400	10.71%	150/1386	10.82%
3	175/1400	12.5%	175/1386	12.62%

Weighted average chance

The overall chance of a rare from a specific slot can be calculated by accounting for the scaling chance. It was later confirmed that this increased rare chance does carry over from one clue to the next. For the sake of some simplicity in the calculation, the original chance of 1/14 is used. Tier 4 luck only adds a 1400/1386 modifier.

Because the increased chance carries over, we have a continuous loop through a system with 4 states.
State 0: your first ever roll, or your roll after a rare roll. Chance of a rare is 4/56 (or 1/14).
State 1: Bad luck mitigation (BLM) step 1. Chance of a rare is 5/56 (or 1.25/14).
State 2: BLM step 2. Chance of a rare is 6/56 (or 1.5/14).
State 3: Maximum BLM. Chance of a rare is 7/56 (or 1.75/14).

These states feed into each other. For example: from state 0 you can return to state 0 by rolling a rare, with a chance of 1/14, or you can reach state 1, with a chance of 13/14. You cannot skip steps, so reaching state 2 and state 3 from state 0 is impossible. This corresponds to the matrix: ${\begin{bmatrix}4/56&52/56&0&0\\5/56&0&51/56&0\\6/56&0&0&50/56\\7/56&0&0&49/56\end{bmatrix}}$

Because it is a continuous system we can use the fact that in a long distribution $v_{\infty }P=v_{\infty }$ We then solve for the steady state vector $v$. We first rewrite the equation, and factor out $v$, which leads to the equation: $v(P-1)=0$

In matrix multiplication an identity matrix I is the equivalent of 1. So we substitute that in, and we then rewrite the whole equation to: ${\begin{bmatrix}a&b&c&d\end{bmatrix}}\times \left({\begin{bmatrix}4/56&52/56&0&0\\5/56&0&51/56&0\\6/56&0&0&50/56\\7/56&0&0&49/56\end{bmatrix}}-{\begin{bmatrix}1&0&0&0\\0&1&0&0\\0&0&1&0\\0&0&0&1\end{bmatrix}}\right)$

We can then solve for the variables $a$, $b$, $c$, and $d$, which give us the input to get a weighted average for the chance to roll a rare, given the chance of having different BLM numerators.

This weighted average is $\left({\dfrac {5488}{48375}}\times {\dfrac {4}{56}}\right)+\left({\dfrac {5096}{48375}}\times {\dfrac {5}{56}}\right)+\left({\dfrac {1547}{16125}}\times {\dfrac {6}{56}}\right)+\left({\dfrac {442}{645}}\times {\dfrac {7}{56}}\right)={\dfrac {5488}{48375}}$. This makes sense as the chance of being in State 0, is the same as $a$ which is also the same chance of rolling a rare.

The number of master clues with at least one rare is then simply found by calculating the chance of getting nothing in 6 slots, then subtracting that from one. Thus the chance of a master clue having at least one rare is 51.45%, or 52.02% with tier 4 luck.

Rewards

If the rare table is successfully rolled, you then roll between 1 and 42 to determine which reward is obtained. Each of the following occupies one slot of this table, giving them a 1/42 (2.38%) chance to be chosen.

• Flaming sword enchantment
• Hobby unicorn (white)
• Hobby unicorn (black)
• Pyjama top
• Pyjama bottoms
• Pyjama slippers
• Heavy chest
• Bag of clues
• Ring of coins
• Ring of trees
• Adamant dragon mask
• Rune dragon mask
• Dragonstone dragon mask
• Onyx dragon mask
• Hydrix dragon mask
• Gilded boater
• Gilded cavalier
• Samurai kasa
• Reaper ornament kit
• Soul ornament kit
• Tuxedo jacket
• Tuxedo trousers
• Tuxedo shoes
• Tuxedo gloves
• Tuxedo cravat
• Evening bolero
• Evening dipped skirt
• Evening shoes
• Evening gloves
• Evening masquerade mask
• Heated tea flask
• Pack yak mask

The following continue with a 1/42 chance to be chosen, but then do additional rolls to determine specific rewards

• A 1/2 roll for either Golden thread or Elemental impetus
• A 1/3 roll for one of Round glasses (black), Round glasses (green), or Round glasses (blue)
• A 1/3 roll for one of Stylish glasses (black), Stylish glasses (green), or Stylish glasses (blue)
• A 1/3 roll for one of Half-moon spectacles (black), Half-moon spectacles (green), or Half-moon spectacles (blue)
• A 1/180 roll for Orlando Smith's hat
  • If this fails, receive an Elemental battlestaff instead
• A 1/28 roll for a Shadow dye
  • If failed, a 1/19 roll for an Ice dye
    • If failed, a 1/14 roll for a Barrows dye
      • If failed, get a Re-roll token (master)
• A 1/85 roll for a Third Age dye
  • If failed, a 1/60 roll for an Sack of effigies
    • If failed, a 1/30 roll for a Backstab cape
      • If failed, get a Triskelion fragment (the next one in order)
• A 1/90 roll for a Blood dye
  • If failed, get 200,000
• A 1/5 roll for an Ancient effigy
  • If failed, get a Triskelion fragment (the next one in order)
• A roll out of 300 for:
  • (1/300) A 1/3 roll for Second-Age full helm, Second-Age platebody, Second-Age platelegs
  • (1/300) A 1/3 roll for Second-Age mage mask, Second-Age robe top, Second-Age robe bottom
  • (1/300) A 1/3 roll for Second-Age range coif, Second-Age range top, Second-Age range legs
  • (1/300) Second-Age sword
  • (1/300) Second-Age staff
  • (1/300) Second-Age bow
  • (294/300) If the Second-Age rolls fail, a second 300 roll is made:
    • (195/300) Re-roll token (master)
    • (105/300) 500,000

Simplified

While the reward tables above describe the full behaviour, it is usually easier to have a simplified 'flattened' table,as the full behaviour can be represented as just a simple chance.

• From rare table simply multiplies out the above table to be a 'flat' table
• After rare roll uses a 100 numerator
• Overall per clue uses the chances calculated in the #Weighted average chance section above
• Percentages are rounded to 4 significant figures to a minimum of 4 decimal places

Item(s)	Chance from rare table		Chance after rare roll				Overall chance per clue
			Normal		T4 luck		Normal		T4 luck
	Percent	Fraction	Percent	Fraction	Percent	Fraction	Percent	Fraction	Percent	Fraction
Simple items (each)	2.3810%	1/42	0.1701%	1/588	0.1718%	≈1/582	1.6283%	≈1/61.42	1.6447%	≈1/60.80
Upgrade items (each)	1.1905%	1/84	0.08503%	1/1176	0.08589%	≈1/1164	0.8141%	≈1/122.8	0.8223%	≈1/121.6
Glasses (each)	0.7937%	1/126	0.05669%	1/1764	0.05726%	≈1/1746	0.5428%	≈1/184.2	0.5482%	≈1/182.4
Elemental battlestaff	2.3677%	≈1/42.23	0.1691%	≈1/591.3	0.1708%	≈1/585.4	1.6192%	≈1/61.8	1.6356%	≈1/60.8
Orlando Smith's hat	0.01323%	1/7560	0.0009448%	1/105,840	0.0009544%	≈1/104,781	0.009046%	≈1/11,055	0.009137%	≈1/10,944
Shadow dye	0.08503%	1/1176	0.006074%	1/16,464	0.006135%	≈1/16,299	0.05815%	≈1/1720	0.05874%	≈1/1702
Ice dye	0.1208%	≈1/827.5	0.008631%	≈1/11,586	0.008718%	≈1/11,470	0.08264%	≈1/1210	0.08347%	≈1/1198
Barrows dye	0.1554%	≈1/643.7	0.01110%	≈1/9011	0.01121%	≈1/8921	0.1062%	≈1/941	0.1073%	≈1/932
Third Age dye	0.02801%	1/3570	0.002001%	1/49,980	0.002021%	≈1/49480	0.01916%	≈1/5220	0.01935%	≈1/5168
Sack of effigies	0.03922%	1/2550	0.002801%	≈1/35,700	0.002829%	≈1/35,343	0.02682%	≈1/3729	0.02709%	≈1/3692
Backstab cape	0.07712	≈1/1297	0.005509%	≈1/18,153	0.005565%	≈1/17,971	0.05274%	≈1/1896	0.05328%	≈1/1877
Blood dye	0.02646%	1/3780	0.001890%	1/52920	0.001909%	≈1/52391	0.01809%	≈1/5527	0.01827%	≈1/5472
Ancient effigy	0.4762%	1/210	0.03401%	1/2940	0.03436%	≈1/2911	0.3257%	≈1/307.1	0.3289%	≈1/304
Second-Age armour (each)	0.002646%	1/37,800	0.0001890%	1/529,200	0.0001909%	1/523,908	0.001809%	≈1/55,274	0.001827%	≈1/54,721
Second-Age weapons (each)	0.007937%	1/12,600	0.0005669%	1/176,400	0.0005726%	1/174,636	0.005428%	≈1/18,425	0.005482%	≈1/18,240
Re-roll token (master) (failed dyes)	2.0197%	≈1/49.5	0.1443%	≈1/693.2	0.1457%	≈1/686.2	1.3812%	≈1/72.4	1.3952%	≈1/71.7
Re-roll token (master) (failed Second Age)	1.5167%	≈1/65.93	0.1083%	≈1/923.1	0.1094%	≈1/913.8	1.0372%	≈1/96.4	1.0477%	≈1/95.5
Re-roll token (master) (overall)	3.5353%	≈1/28.3	0.2526%	≈1/395.9	0.2552%	≈1/391.9	2.4184%	≈1/41.3	2.4428%	≈1/40.9
200,000 (failed blood dye)	2.3545%	≈1/42.47	0.1682%	≈1/594.6	0.1699%	≈1/588.7	1.6102%	≈1/62.1	1.6264%	≈1/61.5
500,000 (failed Second Age)	0.8167%	≈1/122.4	0.05833%	≈1/1714	0.05892%	≈1/1697	0.5585%	≈1/179.1	0.5641%	≈1/177.3
Coins (overall)	3.1712%	≈1/31.53	0.2265%	≈1/441.5	0.2288%	≈1/437.1	2.1687%	≈1/46.11	2.31906%	≈1/45.65
Triskelion fragment (failed capes)	2.2366%	≈1/44.71	0.1598%	≈1/625.9	0.1614%	≈1/619.7	1.5295%	≈1/65.38	1.5450%	≈1/64.73
Triskelion fragment (failed effigy)	1.9048%	1/52.5	0.1361%	1/735	0.1374%	≈1/727.7	1.3026%	≈1/76.77	1.3158%	≈1/76
Triskelion fragment (overall)	4.1414%	≈1/24.15	0.2958%	≈1/338.1	0.2988%	≈1/334.7	2.8321%	≈1/35.31	2.8607%	≈1/34.96

References

All data sourced from the following (now-expired Twitch VODs):

• Easy: RuneScape Twitch channel. 10,000 Easy Clue Casket Rewards with Mods James and Wolf. 28 April 2015.*
• Medium: RuneScape Twitch channel. 10,000 Medium Clue Caskets: Mods Simon + James Battle It Out!. 5 May 2015.*
• Hard: RuneScape Twitch channel. RuneScape 3 - 10,000 Hard Clue Casket Rewards with Mods Simon and James!. 12 May 2015.*
• Elite: RuneScape Twitch channel. [RS3] 10,000 Elite Clue Casket Rewards with Mods Simon and James!. 19 May 2015.*

Highlight videos of the above streams are available on YouTube, however they don't contain all the content of the streams:

• Easy and medium: RuneScape YouTube channel. 10,000 Easy + Medium Clue Loots - RuneScape Stream Highlight. 6 May 2015.*
• Hard: RuneScape YouTube channel. 10,000 Hard Clue Loots - RuneScape Stream Highlight. 13 May 2015.*
• Elite: RuneScape YouTube channel. 10,000 Elite Clue Loots - RuneScape Stream Highlight. 20 May 2015.*

Master clues

Master clues rates were released later, via the RuneScape website.

• Jagex. Master Clue Rates. 4 July 2019. (Archived from the original on 18:50, 5 July 2019 (UTC).)

Update history

The update history project is a work-in-progress – not all updates to this topic may be covered below. See here for how to help out!

• patch 26 February 2018 (Update):.
  • Several existing Treasure Trail rewards such as hats, masks and shirts have been made available in F2P.
  • Tweaks have been made to existing Treasure Trail drop tables, such as removing low-value seeds elite and improving coin values when failing to roll on certain rare rewards.