Talk:Dust devil/Charm log

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This talk page is for discussing the Dust devil/Charm log page.

This edit[edit source]

Ignoring the central problem with using original research—there is no way to verify anything people submit—there are a few reasons why the data submitted in the above edit should be restored. Below, I've posted the percent differences between the average and the data submitted by the user.

Gold charms Green charms Crimson charms Blue charms Total charms
-0.9% +9% -19.8% -1% -12.5%

None of the percent differences above are alarming, considering the charm drop rates are based on chance. The charm rates are different from person to person, and for this user, the charm drop rates were a little more different than average. That does not mean that the data is somehow bad because of this. Take, for example, the Monty Hall problem. Sure, the person who chooses to switch doors has a theoretical two out of three chance of winning the car, but that doesn't mean everyone will produce results similar to that. There may be some rare, but somewhat significant variations from time to time, but on average, the results will be around 2/3.

The amount of kills also influences the final results. This particular user killed only 180 dust devils, compared to 139,545 that were killed in the average (180 kills is approximately 0.129% of 139,545). This will clearly lead to far less accurate results.

Unless we have significant reason to doubt the results, it would be best to assume that the editor was putting down accurate ones, per this policy. Smithing (talk | contribs) 00:07, March 4, 2012 (UTC)

In this case, I believe there is significant reason to doubt. If we take a look at the previous charm log entry, which was only 2 kills more than the one listed above:
Gold charms Green charms Crimson charms Blue charms Total charms
+2.7% -2% +4.3% -0.5% -0.8%
There is much less devience from the already established norm. Given the similarity in kill numbers, as well as the significant difference in crimson charms, I believe we should use common sense and discard the results. As was discussed in chat, this difference may not necessarily be vandalism but there are other factors that we are not aware of that could have affected the result e.g. they were finishing off half killed devils in the chaos tunnels. What I've done Ciphrius Kane Talk 17:14, March 5, 2012 (UTC)
I have contacted the IP who made the edit to see if s/he could give an explanation of the results. Smithing (talk | contribs) 17:43, March 5, 2012 (UTC)