RuneScape:Chat/Logs/02 October 2016

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[2016-10-02 00:41:24] -!- TonyBest100 has left Special:Chat
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[2016-10-02 02:52:17] <Jlun2> (qc) The current D&D that gives you an extra [[Treasure Hunter]] key is Circus.
[2016-10-02 02:52:21] <Jlun2> (qc) The current location of the [[Circus]] is Taverley.
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[2016-10-02 12:46:29] <Lairud123> Why kalphite cave shortcut isn't made a comp cape req???
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[2016-10-02 16:40:13] <Coelacanth0794> hey i wanna add the d&d page for demon flash mob locations to the navbox
[2016-10-02 16:40:17] <Coelacanth0794> where should I put that?
[2016-10-02 16:40:37] <Coelacanth0794> http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/Distractions_and_Diversions/Locations/Demon_Flash_Mob loc link
[2016-10-02 16:40:37] <Coelacanth0794> http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/Template:Demon_Flash_Mobs template link
[2016-10-02 16:45:00] <Coelacanth0794> put a thing on anyways i hope it looks okay
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[2016-10-02 17:01:19] <Coelacanth0794> (qc) The current D&D that gives you an extra [[Treasure Hunter]] key is Circus.
[2016-10-02 17:10:27] <Gaz_Lloyd> Jlun2 http://www.regexr.com/
[2016-10-02 17:10:39] <Jlun2> tyvm @both
[2016-10-02 17:17:14] <Jlun2> hey coel
[2016-10-02 17:17:19] <Coelacanth0794> ?
[2016-10-02 17:17:27] <Jlun2> if you're ever free please update the firemaking circus gifs :)
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[2016-10-02 17:49:02] <Scuzzy_Beta> suh doods
[2016-10-02 17:49:02] <RSChatBot> Scuzzy Beta, Coelacanth0794 wanted to tell you @ 2016-09-25 21:34:32 UTC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPo3taFfI6o
[2016-10-02 17:49:17] <Scuzzy_Beta> d'awwwww
[2016-10-02 17:49:41] <Coelacanth0794> hi
[2016-10-02 17:49:48] <Scuzzy_Beta> coel !!!!<333333
[2016-10-02 17:50:00] <Coelacanth0794> hello
[2016-10-02 17:50:05] <Scuzzy_Beta> :3
[2016-10-02 18:01:12] <Jlun2> hi
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[2016-10-02 20:45:48] <Jlun2> hello
[2016-10-02 20:45:57] <Jlun2> can someone please help with probability?
[2016-10-02 20:46:21] <Jlun2> Ok so
[2016-10-02 20:46:22] <Jlun2> There is a test available to screen for cancer. Applied to people who do not have cancer, a test in one
[2016-10-02 20:46:22] <Jlun2> clinic has about a 0.6% false-positive rate; that is, the rate of falsely indicating that cancer is present.
[2016-10-02 20:46:22] <Jlun2> If a clinic tests 100 people who are free of cancer, what is the probability that at least one false-positive
[2016-10-02 20:46:22] <Jlun2> will occur? Assume test results are independent for different individuals.
[2016-10-02 20:46:35] <Jlun2> Does that mean simply 0.6%?
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[2016-10-02 20:58:34] <Jlun2> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwjQaJ5xt1o
[2016-10-02 20:58:34] <Jlun2> nvm
[2016-10-02 21:01:30] <Jlun2> hm. got 45.2% chance :)
[2016-10-02 21:01:42] <Jlun2> that's unexpectedly high
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[2016-10-02 22:36:10] <Jlun2> gaz are you good at probabilities?
[2016-10-02 22:36:21] <Gaz_Lloyd> what's up
[2016-10-02 22:36:34] <Jlun2> Suppose in the general population, 51% are males and 49% are females. It is known 9.5% of males smoke cigars and only 1.7% of females smoke cigars. One adult is selected at random for a survey, and this adult smokes cigars. Given this, find the probability that the selected person is a male. 
[2016-10-02 22:36:38] <Jlun2> How do i approach???
[2016-10-02 22:37:14] <Jlun2> google claims to use for P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B)/ P(B)
[2016-10-02 22:37:16] <Jlun2> but 
[2016-10-02 22:37:24] <Jlun2> what do i use for A?
[2016-10-02 22:37:28] <Jlun2> the 9.5%?
[2016-10-02 22:38:42] <Jlun2> and trying that formula gives me another problen
[2016-10-02 22:39:03] <Jlun2> how do I find intersect of dependent events, if that also requires the union
[2016-10-02 22:39:20] <Jlun2> ie.  P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
[2016-10-02 22:40:35] <Gaz_Lloyd> Haven't done conditional in a while but i think it would be like
[2016-10-02 22:40:35] <Gaz_Lloyd> P(Male) = 0.51
[2016-10-02 22:40:35] <Gaz_Lloyd> P(Male ∩ Smokes) = 0.095
[2016-10-02 22:40:35] <Gaz_Lloyd> P(Smokes) = 0.51*0.095 + 0.49*0.017
[2016-10-02 22:40:35] <Gaz_Lloyd> P(Male|Smokes) = P(Male ∩ Smokes) / P(Smokes)
[2016-10-02 22:42:01] <Jlun2> er
[2016-10-02 22:42:21] <Jlun2> I did event A has smokes and B as male instead
[2016-10-02 22:42:33] <Jlun2> shouldnt change too much right
[2016-10-02 22:42:40] <Gaz_Lloyd> If you switch all the vars around its the same
[2016-10-02 22:43:01] <Jlun2> P(Smokes|Male) = P(Male ∩ Smokes) / P(Male)?
[2016-10-02 22:43:03] <Gaz_Lloyd> the question asks given the adult smokes, what's the probability that they are male
[2016-10-02 22:43:15] <Gaz_Lloyd> so you're looking for P(Male|Smoke)
[2016-10-02 22:43:19] <Jlun2> oh
[2016-10-02 22:44:08] <Gaz_Lloyd> think there's a formula for P(A|B) -> P(B|A)
[2016-10-02 22:44:09] <Gaz_Lloyd> i forget
[2016-10-02 22:44:52] <Jlun2> also for the P(Smokes), you just multiply each rate with the genders and add?
[2016-10-02 22:45:13] <Gaz_Lloyd> that's what i did
[2016-10-02 22:46:32] <Jlun2> alright, tyvm :)
[2016-10-02 22:46:39] <Jlun2> sorry to interrupt your RS
[2016-10-02 22:46:56] <Gaz_Lloyd> oh, P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A) / (P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|Ac)P(Ac))
[2016-10-02 22:48:52] <Gaz_Lloyd> P(Male|Smokes) = P(Smokes|Male)P(Male) / (P(Smokes|Male)P(Male) + P(Smokes|Not Males)P(Not Male))
[2016-10-02 22:49:06] <Gaz_Lloyd> but that might be the long way round
[2016-10-02 22:50:21] <Jlun2> also what was the rule used to get P(Smokes)?
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[2016-10-02 22:52:37] <Gaz_Lloyd> P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|Ac)P(Ac)
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[2016-10-02 22:52:59] <Jlun2> ty
[2016-10-02 22:53:06] <Gaz_Lloyd> P(Smokes) = P(Smokes|Male)P(Male) + P(Smokes|Not Male)P(Not Male)
[2016-10-02 22:53:27] <Gaz_Lloyd> surprised how much i remember of this
[2016-10-02 22:53:46] <Gaz_Lloyd> i think it just worked into my deduction process
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[2016-10-02 22:58:46] <Jlun2> somehow
[2016-10-02 22:58:50] <Jlun2> I got over 100% chance
[2016-10-02 22:58:59] <Jlun2> with the answer being 1.67
[2016-10-02 23:02:13] <Gaz_Lloyd> 1.67 what
[2016-10-02 23:02:35] <Gaz_Lloyd> i got 85.33%
[2016-10-02 23:02:35] <Jlun2> P(Male ∩ Cigar): 0.095
[2016-10-02 23:02:35] <Jlun2> P(Cigar): 0.05678
[2016-10-02 23:02:50] <Jlun2> er.. smokes
[2016-10-02 23:02:59] <Jlun2> divide top with bottom gave ~1.67
[2016-10-02 23:06:06] <Jlun2> how did you get 0.853?
[2016-10-02 23:06:21] <Gaz_Lloyd> by the above?
[2016-10-02 23:07:20] <Jlun2> 0.0950 / 05678 ?
[2016-10-02 23:07:23] <Jlun2> er
[2016-10-02 23:07:26] <Jlun2> 0.095 / 0.05678
[2016-10-02 23:08:26] <Gaz_Lloyd> http://i.imgur.com/eDTXKVz.jpg
[2016-10-02 23:09:52] <Jlun2> oh. seems I did not take account P(M|S) 
[2016-10-02 23:10:09] <Jlun2> P(S|M)*
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[2016-10-02 23:10:57] <Gaz_Lloyd> you missed P(M)
[2016-10-02 23:10:58] <Coelacanth0794> hi
[2016-10-02 23:11:01] <Jlun2> hi
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[2016-10-02 23:14:52] <Jlun2> tyvm
[2016-10-02 23:14:55] <Jlun2> sorry for the confusion
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[2016-10-02 23:17:55] <Gaz_Lloyd> np
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