Forum:Merchanting Advice

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This thread was archived on 14 December 2010 by Haloolah123.

Ok, so my idea is to create a subsection of the GEMW which gives up-to-date advice about certain market fluctuations and predicts near future fluctuations. I'm not talking about small things like price cycles of items which anyone with half a brain can predict. I'm talking about large changes to entire ranges of items that are connected in one way or another, such as herbs, ores or high-level weaponry to name a few. Changes that are created by Updates or pre-warning of Updates.

A great example is the Bonus XP Weekend. As soon as we are told of it players prepare by buying large amounts of resources. A day or so before the weekend, lots of people dump in an attempt to make money while others buy resources for full price at the last moment. After the weekend, all processed items crash sharply. A player can make a lot of money by manipulating these trends for profit with the right advice.

Giving this advice will be a small group of experienced merchants. I'm still thinking about how we will select who to put in that group though. Maybe a 3 day trial of selecting items that will rise and items that will fall or something along those lines. And if they make a certain amount of bad calls they are replaced? So once a week the group comes together to make a call on how the market is about to move or already moving. And immediately after updates of course, but most updates have effects that can last for weeks or months.

We already have a model sharemarket in-game, why not have [Errr, what are the people who give share advice in the business sections of newspapers called again?] for the wiki? And don't say that you can already tell what each update will do to the market and that its really easy because it isn't. This group needs to think through every single possible change that can come from an update or event. Which sounds simple enough but its easy to miss something important.

This isn't aimed at higher-levelled players who can already predict most changes because they have experienced and know about most parts of runescape. Its aimed at low-mid level players who don't know what effects certain changes may have on Grand Exchange prices, they just want to know what to buy, when to buy it and when to sell it to make money.

Just have a think about it. - [Pharos] 12:21, November 25, 2010 (UTC)

Discussion

Support - As Nominator - [Pharos] 12:23, November 25, 2010 (UTC)

Oppose - Well, first of all, to select the people who would go on the "commission" would involve a myriad of political wrangling and numerous "My experience is better than your experience" fights. Second of all, we should not be offering financial advice. We're an information source, not Fidelity Investments or the IRA. This is a great way to make many people hate the wiki if the advice we offer turns out to be wrong. Such advice qualifies more as opinions of several veteran users, not facts. Therefore, it should not be on the wiki without the proper warnings, because the determinations of the committee are likely to be challenged by at least one portion of the RuneScape player body. In this case, the proper warnings would have to be strong enough that they would disaude a significant portion of the population from using the page, which defeats the purpose. Thirdly, the only way to avoid the previous scenario of misinformation is if we strictly limit the cases that can go on the page, at which point the opportunities become so scarce that the page will be underused and undermaintained. So, all in all, I do not believe this is a plausible addition at this time. --LiquidTalk 17:57, November 25, 2010 (UTC)

Oppose - Giving market advice is not what the wiki was meant to do, and the very nature of market advice is that it is speculative, opinion based, and often innacurate. Furthermore I don't see how we could possibly go about choosing who would be on the committee other than a totally irrelevant "how well i know them on the wiki", since people don't really have access to the relevant information. I think market discussions should be limited to the forums. kitty.pngPsycho Robot talkSilver bar.png 21:20, November 25, 2010 (UTC)

Even advice such as "due to mass production for experience, many processed items will be cheaper after the bonus experience weekend"? It's not really just guessing, it's almost a certainty. And it's backed up by facts and previous experience of the bonus xp weekends. - [Pharos] iPhone Edit 21:26, November 25, 2010 (UTC)
And a statement such as that is only relevant a few times a year. So we don't really need a separate project for that. And since that is completely fact based, it can be rewritten to "before each bonus xp weekend the cost of raw materials spiked dramatically, then after they concluded the price of finished goods such as potions and cooked food fell significantly." That removes any speculative nature from the statement, so it could go right into Bonus XP Weekend. kitty.pngPsycho Robot talkSilver bar.png 21:33, November 25, 2010 (UTC)

Strong oppose but a bit bias - I hate anything to do with merching as it is not a completely fair way of 'earning' coins because where you get profit, someone gets loss. I'm also opposing because the information change without notice and is, as Psycho said, is speculative, opinion based, and often inaccurate. Full Slayer Helmet! Evil1888 Talk A's L Dragon Platebody! 23:25, November 25, 2010 (UTC)

Suggestion - Although I doubt this will ever be approved as a wiki mainspace project, If you feel that this is something that may be beneficial, you could do it on a subpage of a user, with a disclaimer at the top. Just a suggestion, seeing the direction that this is going in. Guthix's Book of Balance.pngUFeelNoPainTalkFiremaking 00:16, November 26, 2010 (UTC)

Extremely strong oppose to anything involving a merchanting clan. Neutral otherwise. Green's suggestion about it being a userspace project sounds fine with me- that way it won't be officially sanctioned by the wiki, but you still get to do everything you propose. --Andorin (Talk) (Contribs) 00:21, November 26, 2010 (UTC)

This has nothing to do with Merch clans, though I can see how you got there. Magic-icon.pngStelercusIlluminated Book of Balance.png 03:07, November 26, 2010 (UTC)

Oppose - Good idea, but it will never work in practice. Too much speculation, bias and assumptions will have to be made, and editors will be constantly disagreeing whether it should or should not be done. 222 talk 05:29, November 26, 2010 (UTC)

oppose - Unless we get some professional expert irl market watcher, it is too much speculation(the expert saying it is still speculation but much less because he knows better what he is talking about) so I don't think this is good for the wiki. JOEYTJE50TALKpull my finger 10:34, November 26, 2010 (UTC)

Request closure - It has been pointed out that such an idea would require too much speculation and bias if implemented. As a result it violated many Wiki policies such as RS:NPOV. 222 talk 00:07, December 4, 2010 (UTC)

Invalid. Consensus trumps all policies. Magic-icon.pngStelercusIlluminated Book of Balance.png 00:11, December 4, 2010 (UTC)
We've had total opposition to this idea. 222 talk 00:48, December 4, 2010 (UTC)
Barely anyone has actually added their opinion. Try being patient. Andrew talk 04:04, December 4, 2010 (UTC)

With the passage of this proposal, we've done away with our pretense of being neutral providers of information and entered the role of financial advisors for our readers; therefore any objection to this proposal is largely hypocritical. So long as the proposed advice is couched in language of "all market speculation is inherently guesswork and nothing is guaranteed" and other such caveats, there's no real reason to not implement this proposal which has the potential to be highly useful. (wszx) 01:06, December 4, 2010 (UTC)

A lot of the opposition was derived from the fact that this idea requires a selective group of people make all these decisions, which has not been well received by those discussing. Magic-icon.pngStelercusIlluminated Book of Balance.png 01:18, December 4, 2010 (UTC)
Well we don't have to make it one set of recommendations. Why not just have a bunch of advice given by anyone who has something to say? (wszx) 01:21, December 4, 2010 (UTC)
I don't know. I oppose both this and the merch clan warnings for the same reasons, but that's not the point here. Magic-icon.pngStelercusIlluminated Book of Balance.png 01:58, December 4, 2010 (UTC)

Oppose - per Liquid. Andrew talk 04:04, December 4, 2010 (UTC)

Oppose - Apart from risking to make editor flaming, there are a few reasons to this: The complexity is too much; (likely you'd need to predict on a future price of merely a potion with updates, the consumers and the producers) methods tend to change efficiency over time (mainly due to GE price change) and biasing one method over another. Wiki may need to avoid saying that "Cooking lobsters is better than swordfishes", we need to include minority. Rewlf2 15:25, December 4, 2010 (UTC)

Closed - There is no consensus, discussion has died. HaloTalk 19:51, December 14, 2010 (UTC)