Forum:Inflation Mesurement

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This thread was archived on 15 January 2010 by Robert Horning.


Inflation Watch: Explained & Updated

I think the wiki should set up something where it monitors the price of lots of common things and takes that as a percent of the price as when this was started, i'll use coal as an example:

Coal.png
Item: Coal
Original Price: 200
Current Price: 202
Percent of Original: 101%


Except the definite values being replaced by ge tags and the percent being a function of the ge prices, which after getting a lot of the commonly traded items (i.e. bowstring, iron, etc.) into the database we could create an accurate view of how the GP is inflating/deflating. I wanted to do this as nobody has any data like this.


Update
Alright I suppose I didnt really make my point clear, and although I am a new user I am not new to the wiki. And as such, I am fully aware of the GE market watch and the Common Trade Index.

See, in real life there is the DOW and the NASDAQ, as I'm sure you all know, which would be the equivalent of the common trade index. And the GE Market Watch of individual items could be seen as the different stocks. What I'm suggesting would be something like exchange rates, but instead of comparing it to other currencies, it would be compared to previous points in time of the Index.

It would be not so much as the individual items in boxes like that, which do look strikingly like the GE market boxes, I agree, but as a change in the Gold Piece as a whole like per se the U.S. Dollar?

This would allow for creation of official statistics of RuneScape inflation (i.e. the GP has inflated 6% from this time one year ago)

I suppose this makes it a little more clear? --

Runecrafting MythbustermaTalk   HSCabbage.png<= BRASSICA PRIME

04:08, November 7, 2009 (UTC)



Comments and Chat

Comment - You mean like the common trade index? Quest.png Gaz Lloyd 7:^]Events!99s 00:07, November 5, 2009 (UTC)

Your explanation clarified it. Sounds like a good idea. Quest.png Gaz Lloyd 7:^]Events!99s 22:27, November 5, 2009 (UTC)
I'm glad my clarification clarified things. (p.s. I love words :) Runecrafting--Mythbusterma 22:58, November 5, 2009 (UTC)

Comment - I would suggest you go to RuneScape:WikiGuild and start a project, and maybe recruit helpers...? I don't know. If you really want someone who knows his stuff, ask Robert Horning, GE fanatic. (No offense) --

Water Wave icon.png
Captain Sciz
TalkEditsHiscores File:Runecrafter hat.png|link=

00:22, November 5, 2009 (UTC)

Comment - Uhm, I think the CTI already covers this pretty well... — Enigma 00:28, November 5, 2009 (UTC)

Comment - Mythbusterma, see these image to see how coal and the general RS economy is inflating. Our Common Trade Index keeps tracks of several commonly-traded items. For a full list of items, see the Common Trade Index page.

Comment - Were you talking about something like this? We have a project called Grand Exchange Market History which keeps tracks of the inflation/deflation of all items, but not in percentages as you mentioned. I have the price data of all items ranging back from 1 January 2009 till now, so leave me a note in my talk page if you need them.   az talk   02:22, November 5, 2009 (UTC)

Reply - If you don't mind i deleted the images of the CTI and the coal Market Watch as after I clarified myself i see them as irrelevant. Runecrafting--Mythbusterma 20:15, November 5, 2009 (UTC)
Actually I do mind that you deleted the images... since we have a policy of not deleting discussions. And my statement "Were you talking about something like this?" makes no sense now.   az talk   06:42, November 6, 2009 (UTC)

Comment - If you want to make an accurate comparison between the Grand Exchange on RuneScape and something in real life, it would be the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and not the New York Stock Exchange, although the analogy to stock issues is something that perhaps more people are familiar with. The GE is a commodity exchange, not a stock market, and there are some subtle differences in their behaviors. The CTI, while I've modeled its calculation method based on the divisor method used with creating the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the more proper index comparison to make here is the Consumer Price Index... which does essentially the same thing.

I do think the CTI does absolutely everything that you are suggesting here.... and it would even be possible to pull up data from some time in the past and show the percentage change from say a year ago. BTW, I want to confirm User:Azliq7 assertion he made on my user talk page on this topic: The current rough annual inflation percentage can be calculated from the CTI as being (165-110)/110 = 50%. That is an annual percentage rate of 50%.... something typical of banana republics and horribly managed economies that are usually ripe for a major revolution and civil unrest normally not seen in western countries. This is unfortunately something typical for most MMORPGs.

The CTI isn't perfect, and most of the commodities selected were made prior to the introduction of the GE Database. I need to clean it up a little bit in terms of adding a couple commodities that are fairly commonly traded and reflect the current market environment. Discussion of this can and ought to be on the CTI discussion page, but it should also be pointed out that we have had some over zealous users add a huge number of items to this index and miss the point of what it really is about. This is an index of commonly traded goods and not high-value items like Dragon Daggers and god swords. Because of the common nature of these items, I think it does an even better job at indicating broad market conditions than other sorts of indicies such as a rare item index.

The "proof" of its value is how it accurately reflected the jump in prices with the changes that happened with PvP combat in June of this year, and the release of the personalized shops than send the price of almost everything up as well. Perhaps I'm being a bit harsh with the 50% inflation, as there are some definite inflection points due to game updates, but overall the economy seems to be quite stable compared to most RPG style games. Certainly the inflation is much better than World of Warcraft and some of the "competitors" to RuneScape.

I plan on writing a column fairly soon for the RSWP that will go over these numbers and go into details of inflation, the role of inflation in game economies, what causes that inflation from a general viewpoint, and what are the issues right now with Runescape in particular. I'm still doing the final little bits of research on that column, so I'm not quite ready to write it yet... and I'm trying to let the RSWP settle down after a significant policy overhaul and editorial change over. I also have a column in the current edition, so I'm holding my time for the next issue.

FYI, inflation of 50% implies that a gold coin only buys 75% of what it was able to buy a year ago on the Grand Exchange.... speaking broadly and not pointing to any specific item. --Robert Horning 14:39, November 6, 2009 (UTC)

Reply - Yes mr horning I know and that is the data I want and I plan to use current GEMW data and if you dont mind im going to get started with the coding......this is data that me and Gaz Lloyd think is a good idea. And by the way I would like to the the news letter you speak of. And once again I must clarify that I dont really care about individual items, i just really want a idea of how the GP changes, and i know the CTI could help, but im talking on a scale of hundreds of items, instead of like 50. If anyone wants to check my progress check my sandbox. Runecrafting--Mythbusterma 17:55, November 6, 2009 (UTC)
In fairness, one of the problems we ran into in terms of making a massive index with a great many items updated from the GEMW data is the internal MediaWiki template buffer overflow issue. Essentially, all of the data on a single page, as it is being generated, has an absolute memory limit (I believe about 2 MB worth of data) before the page parser has a cow and starts to reject the data. We hit this limit on multiple occasions when putting together the CTI data, and that is one reason we havn't built more indicies either. The current situation is fairly stable at the moment with the number of items we are using, and with a few somewhat recent streamlining of the GEMW data, we could likely double the number of items in the CTI. I wouldn't go much more than that, however. I certainly wouldn't push for thousands of items as a goal. The problem here is simply number crunching... you may want to switch to a compiled software package instead. MediaWiki does some amazing stuff, but there are limits to its performance. I heard that the buffer size was also increased with a recent enhancement, but I don't know the details. This issue is also a problem on Wikipedia, so it is getting some attention there as well. --Robert Horning 04:16, November 7, 2009 (UTC)
If this is indeed an issue i could split the workload between two pages or, as you suggested, write some JS but i dont know how to write it, i only write HTML and CSS, and wiki markup, if you count that.... p.s. does anyone know why my sig is breaking?--
13:50, November 7, 2009 (UTC)
Splitting this up into multiple pages doesn't help, as this applies to the total expansion limit for doing calculations. In other words, if you split this up into multiple pages, you can't reference the results of the two pages together for the same calculation. Yeah, it stinks. The problem with Javascript and CSS style sheets is that the content is inserted into each and every page on the entire wiki.... adding considerable overhead to the server and page requests. Any javascript that is directly put into the wiki markup (aka the regular page content like this forum page where I'm adding text) is simply stripped out altogether, as it is a security risk that has been amply demonstrated by the MediaWiki development team. I've suggested a javascript extension that perhaps could be added to this wiki that perhaps could help in a situation like this where the script would only apply to one page. Some excellent suggestions on how to accomplish that have been offered, but it again opens up a huge security hole I'd rather not see unless there are some extra protections put into place first.
The point I'm making is that there is a reason why we do what we do here, and why the CTI doesn't involve a huge number of items beyond what it does... not because we are ignorant but for valid technical reasons. Since the CTI has been released, some changes to MediaWiki have happened to support templates and may be of further value to add additional items to the CTI. You are also certainly free to create a "personal" index that would only display on your user page made up of items that you find to be relevant to your own game play style. That would be trivial and wouldn't hurt the rest of this wiki at all. I don't think that is what you were trying to aim for, however. --Robert Horning 08:38, November 9, 2009 (UTC)
Well then i suppose ill have to write it in wiki markup lol oh well......1,000 lines of wikimarkup coming up! :) p.s. my computer is *cabbage* messed up so i wont get started for a little bit, maybe a day or two (yes censored words should be replaced by cabbage)
-- 20:31, November 9, 2009 (UTC)

Showing inflation on specific items

As an addendum, perhaps I could show you how to use the existing GEMW data to essentially do what I think it is that you are trying to accomplish. Here is a "live data" version of your box you had listed above:

Coal.png
Item: Coal
Original Price: 170 (February 2009)
Current Price: 287
Percent of Original: 168.8%

I'm not sure if this is what you want, but this should give you an idea on how to put something like this on your user page, if that is your goal. You would have to dig up the historical data based on the GEMW database (the Jagex GE Database doesn't go back that far), but the data is here on the wiki if you want to dig it up. --Robert Horning 15:01, November 6, 2009 (UTC)

Reply - No, sorry this is not what I wanted. I'm going to get started on my page soon ok? Runecrafting --Mythbusterma 23:12, November 6, 2009 (UTC)

Discussion Closed - It has been over two months since any discussion was added to this thread, and there doesn't seem to be any sort of policy decision to be made here. If anybody wants some help with this concept, either take it up on the forums or start a new Yew Grove discussion. --Robert Horning 14:00, January 15, 2010 (UTC)